The Future of Religion
So here it is, the last of my lectures for this course. I will begin with this quote from my horoscope for the day (I am a Capricorn). “If you can’t come up with a real world solution, then pluck one out of the land of make believe.” Although appropriate for the topic, I have a sneaking suspicion that the author of the horoscope may have followed her own advice for me.
The future of Religion in a nutshell is this: change in religion swings back-and-forth between key players, ideology, and intensity. Changes in the U.S. will continue along a church-to-sect process.These changes happen often and are pervasive. They are also are contingent on other social forces such as demographics (birthrates, both immigration/emigration within the denomination and in the larger society), globalization and McDonaldization. Religious leaders are aware of broad statements about religious change and even try to affect change in other institutions so they realize some benefits. Consider this topic “Praying for a Recession: The Business Cycle and Protestant Church Growth in the United States” presented at the 2007 annual meeting of the Society for the Scientific Study of Religion (SSSR henceforth).
What are some of the broad boundaries of the future of faith in the U.S.? To answer this, I will be focusing on some major points brought up by Roozen (2001). I think it is safe to say all faiths are becoming more diverse (race, ideologies, sexualities, etc.). For some denominations, inclusion is part of church identity, for other more extrinsic faiths, the future may not be very bright. Johnstone (2007:411) wrote “Absolutism is replaced with relativity.”
Another area to watch for is how denominations deal with politics, both within their churches (e.g., The Black Empowerment movement within liberal Unitarian Universalism) and on a state, national, or global level (e.g. Episcopalians and gays). Remember the small-town yokel who wanted to burn a Koran and drew the attention of state, national, and international leaders? Politics and religion will continue to be a volatile mix. Moreover, wedge issues became a popular political tactic in recent elections. Wedge issues may realize gains in the short-term politically. In the long-term, however, this tactic will drive away potential church members (remember my projections about newer generations having fewer hangups about gays?). Also reflect on the fact that “noners” is one of the largest religious groupings in the United States.
The category that has really jumped (from 8% to 14%) in the past decade is people who say they don’t subscribe to any religious identification. Most of this group aren’t Atheists, say scholars like Claude Fischer at the University of Californian, Berkeley. They still believe in basics like God, heaven and the bible as an inspired text, but prefer to think of themselves as spiritual rather than anything more specific (Cloud 2004).”
Many folks are becoming more spiritual than religious–a point I brought up on several occasions over the course (see Johnstone’s discussion about Mark Chaves on page 412). Dogma and ideology are turnoffs for these people. You may recall my past discussion of Batson’s concept of the quest. This also means more people are open to try new and different faith traditions.
Finally, when the focus of a church is all about getting people into the pews (missionary work/proselytizing), something is going to suffer such as sermons. As you may remember, I talked about the Presbyterian Church U.S.A. losing parishioners because of bad sermons according to a recent Religious Research Association president in a 2010 address. The same goes for mega-churches, supplanting music for service, and other supposed inducements (Corliss 2004; Biema 2004; Ritzer 2004:55; Eubanks 2008). Chief Rabbi Jonathan Sacks, in a 2010 interview, made this comment: “What is the point of being a religious leader if you don’t say something that’s difficult for people who follow you? You know, you’ve got to challenge them and be challenged by them.”
Of course, there is the opposite way to get people into the pews–try to scare them into the church. I found out about the scare tactic first hand a few years ago when I visited an evangelical church’s “scare house” on Halloween. I am not sure that this tactic will attract “noners” and “questers.”
Social Justice or Sticking to the Scriptures?
Looking at Johnstone’s discussion about the purpose of religion (pp. 415-419), I want to spend a moment focusing on social justice, particularly civil rights, in the south. Two quantitative studies provide important insights into some of the reasons some religious leaders in the South involved themselves in the Civil Rights movement. In a study by Berk (1978), in early 1970s, surveys were mailed to churches within 70 denominations around the United States. The surveys addressed each church’s stance on racial and sexual equality. Results of the study confirmed Michel’s Iron Law of Oligarchies as well as the work of Mancur Olsen. Church stances tended to be a reflection of activities, and views shared by a small cadre of church members. This was especially true if the majority of members were “apathetic” and if the employment of the leadership were not contingent on the congregation.
Ammerman’s 1980 study of 72 ministers from the Tuscaloosa area identified several factors that were influential regarding whether the ministers participated in the Civil Rights movement of the 1960s. Highly educated ministers who tended to be reared in urban areas, were non-locals, and were affiliated with mainline denominations were more likely to be involved with the movement. Another important factor was whether the minister’s views diverged from that of his congregants.
In the denomination that I belong, there was a Fellowship Movement that began pretty much after World War II and ended in the late 1960s. The mission of the Fellowship Movement was to foster the emergence of lay-led congregations (fellowships). The movement was quite successful, especially in the South where this particular denomination lost a lot of its appeal because of its abolitionist stand during the Civil War. One unintended consequence of the Fellowship Movement, however, was an anticlerical orientation that many of these fellowships grew to have. Without a religious leader taking the lead, social justice by committee for many congregations, becomes an individual not a congregational pursuit.
Secularization
I like Johnstone’s reference about secularization by alluding to Andrew Greeley on page 408: “Andrew Greeley is very much on target when he says that secularization as discussed in the United States today, means essentially that religion is less important now than it was in the past.”
The topic of secularization is a very popular topic for SSSR members. A review of annual meetings from 2003 to 2010 found 39 presentations directly addressing secularization (2003=6; 2004=3; 2005=2; 2006=2; 2007=6; 2008=7; 2009=6; 2010=7). A number presentations about secularization deal with a particular country (meeting year in parentheses): Finland, Italy (2003); Iran (2004); Taiwan (2005); Canada and Scandinavian countries (2006); UK and Europe (2008); Australia and Denmark (2009), and “Proliferation of Consumption and the Decline of Religious Practice in Europe” (2010).
Applying Stark and Finke’s “Winners and Losers” model to Latin America
According to Johnstone (2007:401), “…[Catholic leadership] lack of attentiveness to parishioners that left vast territories open to Evangelical and Pentecostal Protestant missionary activity.” I recall when I visited both Nicaragua in 1999 and Guatemala in 2007 that Seventh Day Adventists, Mormons, and other U.S. religious organizations were easy to see where ever I visited. The omnipresence of Catholicism is a thing of the past. Two SSSR presentations (presentation years in parentheses) have looked at the rise of non-Catholic faiths in Latin America: 1) “The Growth of Protestant Religions in Mexico and Central America (2003),” and “Latter-day Saints Under Siege: The Unique Story of Mormon Growth in Nicaragua (2006).” It remains to be seen how the Catholic Church regains its traditional authority within the region.
Seventh Day Adventist in Guatemala, 2007. Picture by T. Kersen
Future of Research on Religion
I want to end with a topics not directly covered by the chapter: the state of scientific research on religion.
Looking at research trends along another facet, I am struck by the diverse and creative energies going into getting better data. The author alludes to issues concerning over-reporting of church attendance. The reader should be aware, however, that there are a number of new, innovative data that help give us a better understanding of what is happening in terms of religion. I will mention just a few examples. Each particular data set listed was topic of SSSR presentation and year of presentation is parentheses: missionary data (2005), Faith Communities Today (FACT) data (2006), and time use data from sources such as Bureau of Labor Statistics (2007). Finally, as you may have become aware, The ARDA is an invaluable source for social scientists studying religion.
Theories about various aspects of religious life will continue to be created, tested, and refined. This is especially true as new social forces emerge. I find the intersection of virtual society and virtual faith will be an extremely interesting area of exploration. On the other hand, I believe Weber, Durkheim, and other classical theorists will continue to offer salient insights in studying faith.
This picture was made around the time I lived in an intentional community.
REFERENCES
Ammerman, Nancy. 1980. “The Civil Rights Movement and the Clergy in a Southern Community.” Sociological Analysis 41:339-350.
Berk, Marc. 1978. “Pluralist Theory and Church Policy Positions on Racial and Sexual Equality.” Sociological Analysis 39:338-350.
Biema, David Van. 2004. “Roll Over, Martin Luther: Long the Dominant Faith Affiliation in the U.S., Protestantism may no Longer Boast a Majority.” Time Magazine. 164:53.
Cloud, John. 2004. “The Right’s New Wing.” Time Magazine. 164:24-28.
Corliss, Richard. 2004. “The Gospel According to Spider Man: Christians have Discovered a Powerful New Teaching Tool, and it’s Playing at a Cineplex Near You.” Time Magazine. 164:70-72.
Eubanks, Michelle Rupe. 2008. “Uncertain Future.” Florence Times Daily, February.
Ritzer, George. 2008. The McDonaldization of Society. 5th edition. Los Angeles: Pine Forge Press. Pg. 71.
Roozen, David A. 2001. “Four Mega-Trends Changing America’s Religious Landscape.” Annual Meeting of the Religion Newswriters Association. Boston, MA. September 22. Obtained at http://hirr.hartsem.edu/bookshelf/roozen_article4.html on November 11, 2010.
Sacks, Jonathan. 2010. “The Dignity of Difference.” http://being.publicradio.org/programs/2010/dignity-of-difference/transcript.shtml.
